Risk Management and Resilience of Supply Chains in the Mediterranean Region During Geopolitical Tensions: What Prevention Strategy for Morocco?

Introduction

The events currently unfolding on the global geopolitical stage, especially in the Mediterranean region, coupled with activities targeting maritime flows, demonstrate that we need a concrete national strategy to ensure the stability and continuity of essential supplies to the Moroccan economy and to keep it away from emerging geopolitical disruptions. Geopolitical disruptions, military tensions, and global strategic shifts fuel the dependence on supplies—especially maritime ones—leading to disturbances and disruptions that affect the economic, energy, commercial, industrial, etc., stability of countries that do not take into account the continuous use of rivals and these chains to achieve political, military, diplomatic, etc., objectives. In this regard, we aim in this intervention to contribute to the establishment of a national vision of vigilance, prudence, and planning in order to ensure the continuity of supplies and avoid the disruption of the national economy in similar situations.
The space we are targeting in this intervention is the Mediterranean area, given its significance in terms of positioning on the global geopolitical stage and mainly because Morocco is one of its coastal states. Moreover, the fact that this Sea is one of the most important maritime spaces, with its morphology complicating access to and exit from this maritime area crucial for international trade, makes it sensitive to geopolitical upheavals in the region, which can easily disrupt the movement of essential supplies to the economies of the region, including the stability of logistical chains. Indeed, this instability in supplies and logistics affects the local, regional, and global political and diplomatic situation and inadvertently impacts the ordinary conduct of state activities.
The disruptions we observed in the Red Sea region, the Suez Canal, the Black Sea, and the tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean region show us that these maritime areas were impacting the ordinary activities of ports and the routes, causing a destabilisation of the general trade flows in this basin under study. Uthapala and Kavirathna (2025) demonstrated that these geopolitical disruptions impact commercial activities and especially port activities of countries dependent on the global economy, and consequently, the confidence in these economies’ ability to effectively manage such situations. According to Rahayu and Astuti (2024), the disruption we are studying is not limited in terms of impacts to the well-known forms of geopolitical competition or strategic rivalry such as military confrontation, political overlaps, and diplomatic contradictions, etc. They argue that even special practices in regional economic and commercial competition amplify these disruptions to maximise gains and achieve more profiles at the expense of regional security and social stability.
According to these warnings, it will become apparent that the stability of supply chains and the security of logistics require the mobilisation of state capacities to effectively manage these situations due to the potential threats they pose to security and social stability. This will only be achievable according to Rashid and Kim (2024) with the implementation of a national strategy for managing crises related to critical maritime spaces, which will provide affected actors with operational alternatives on the ground, crisis prospecting studies, effective planning and management tools, and mechanisms for close control and monitoring of crisis situations.
In our case study, Morocco, as a coastal country and strongly connected to global markets, the stability of supply chains and the security of logistics are national security issues, crucial to economic security and social and political stability. National economic and commercial actors will need to take these issues and challenges into consideration by developing immunity against these disruptions, which are gradually becoming permanent risks undermining traditional risk management and planning methods. Although in Morocco the State and the actors have, on several occasions, joined efforts to overcome the global economic disruptions caused by the outbreak of conflicts or multiple crises, the consecutive renewal of these events exhausts national vigilance and weakens the focus on these upheavals. Nevertheless, the implementation of a national risk prevention strategy and diversification of suppliers in this field, open to multiple actors of different public and private natures, is essential to strengthen national resilience in this area and stabilise this maritime space under study.

II. Delimitation of Risks Against Supplies in the Mediterranean

The strategically important Mediterranean is due to its intercontinental geographical position and its contribution to regional and global commercial activity. In addition to being a crossroads between three continents, the Sea also encompasses about ten coastal states, some of which are regional powers. From this, we see that this maritime space is truly a space of geopolitical rivalries and strategic competition, encouraging the use of its morphology to achieve multiple objectives—military, political, diplomatic, etc.—which increases the risk of vulnerabilities against supply chains and logistical goods within this maritime space.
The Mediterranean maritime routes are exposed to multiple risks and challenges, among which geopolitical challenges crown these risks by instantly impacting inter-state exchanges and commercial transfers in this maritime space. Current conflicts directly impact trade and circulation within the Mediterranean, with the Israeli-Iranian conflict and the involvement of the Houthis in the Red Sea clearly demonstrating how regional conflict disrupts international maritime circulation in the Mediterranean. The fact that the Red Sea is an essential entry point to the Mediterranean has indeed facilitated the Houthis’ attempts to threaten maritime traffic in the region’s seas. Houthi military operations against commercial and military ships have disrupted traffic, not only for enemy state vessels, consequently affecting maritime routes and paths, port schedules, traffic costs, etc., all impacted by Houthi military activities in the region (Uthpala and Kavirathna, 2025). Moreover, the disruptions associated with the Russo-Ukrainian conflict have consequently disrupted maritime traffic and access to the Mediterranean, where the massive military presence of Russia in the Black Sea raises doubts and insecurity in this sea, consequently causing military overlaps with Turkey and the Black Sea coastal states. The Eastern Mediterranean is almost entirely unstable due to geopolitical rivalries, military conflicts, diplomatic overlaps, political crises, etc., causing direct disruptions to transit schedules, transportation costs, trust, and the obligations of states to ensure the security of transits and traditional maritime routes (Notteboom et al, 2024). This means that geopolitical risks have gradually become elements of negative influence against supply activities and international commercial transit, and against the security of private and state logistical assets.
Moreover, geopolitical risks are not the only destabilisers, as the straits appear as weak links in the face of political instability in certain political regimes bordering these passages near the Mediterranean. The fact that straits represent points of strategic importance for states at the international level, thanks to what they offer to international trade routes by ensuring the fluidity and dynamics of commercial, energy, tourism, military, scientific, etc., flows, reflects the inability of the neighbouring states in a situation of internal political crisis to guarantee the security of transits in these passages and consequently weakens their commitments before the international community.
The example of Bab el Mandeb, the Dardanelles, the Suez Canal, etc., demonstrated how these disrupted straits force states to integrate multiple changes in trade routes to avoid harassment and blackmail caused by states, militias, or even in some cases by regional pirates (Bell, 2026). Barruso (2025) and Morvadia (2026) confirm in their writings how international trade has been affected by these regional disruptions, threatening all the states bordering the straits in the Middle East region—as well as internationally. This is not limited, according to Ozenir (2019), to military or security threats, as these conflicts or internal political crises can expose international transits and supply chains and logistical goods to long-lasting threats that degrade port infrastructures, impact schedules, and disrupt route organization.
Other political risks can be added to demonstrate the vulnerability of supply chains in the face of global geopolitical changes. Economic sanctions imposed by certain global powers against rival states consequently tend to strengthen dependence, especially on energy or mining resources essential for industry and the development of critical sectors such as technology, agriculture, or pharmaceuticals, etc., coming from the sanctioned states. According to Dawar and Bai (2024), the dependence on these resources, which are difficult to supply to global markets, consequently impacts the costs of several other essential products in both global and local markets. These various risks we have discussed particularly impact both states and the private sector. So, both states and companies are committed to bearing the losses caused by these changes to promote trade and strengthen global integration.

III. Management and Planning of Uncertainty in Similar Experiences

Among the solutions that international actors adopt to overcome the situation of crises and disruptions, we will find the multiplication and diversification of partnerships and actors concerning the transit, import, or export of one or several vital products, energy resource suppliers, port partners, and organisations responsible for maritime routes (Harazha and Shevchuk, 2025). Because according to previous experiences, the concentration around a single supplier or a single importer, etc., increases the likelihood of sabotage and the manipulation of this dependency. It is also easy to hinder or block the habit of concentrating around a customary route, a strait, or a known corridor, where the need to unify efforts between the private and public sectors regarding the multiplication of resources and the diversification of actors becomes essential for national security and stability (Chauhan, 2026). This requires, as we have discussed, not only to reduce costs and avoid time disruptions and delivery commitments. But, it requires the presence of a proactive and comprehensive vision to anticipate risks and manage crisis and uncertainty situations (Rashid, 2024).
In the same vein of securing supplies and logistical goods and infrastructures, Atadoga (2024) believes that the use of real-time surveillance technologies can positively contribute to ensuring real control of risks and changes on the ground. According to Nasih (2024), the use of these surveillance and control technologies online and on the ground, far from raising questions related to rights or sovereignty, will positively contribute to the anticipation process and enhance prospecting by accelerating feedback from decision-makers regarding a turning point weighing against the stability of international exchanges and transits, including activating solutions before the situation becomes more complex. Arowosegbe (2024), although he focuses on the use of surveillance and control technologies to increase the likelihood of risk anticipation and to accelerate feedback from decision-makers regarding these issues, sparked a debate on the cybersecurity challenges of these computer tools used in these situations, where cybersecurity gaps can be manipulated to double the risks against supply and logistics chains.
The innovations related to this risk management debate, at the international level, have gone as far as proposing direct collaboration with local communities if central governments risk not taking the initiative in crisis situations to find effective solutions due to bureaucratic challenges. However, this collaboration, according to Harraf (2022) and Tariq (2025), should be carried out in accordance with the requirements of international law governing the activities of governmental and non-governmental organisations, by leveraging their public relations networks and especially their interactions with local populations.
This required model suffers from some limitations, as its use cannot extend beyond areas severely affected by armed conflicts, where states remain paralysed in the face of regional changes affecting the security and stability of their international transit commitments. However, the most recommended international framework in ordinary cases and situations is the framework of international organisations and legitimate processes with private actors as well as public actors in order to ensure the stability and security of supplies and the sustainability of logistics (Soman and Balasubramanian, 2025).

IV. Case Study in the Mediterranean Region

The most common example to demonstrate the impacts and repercussions on supply chains and logistics in the Mediterranean Sea is the Syrian example. The ten years of internal conflicts have not only disrupted internal economic activities within the country, whose antagonisms have paralysed the country’s full access – in addition to economic sanctions – to essential resources to safeguard its economy and stabilise its internal political situation (Ozenir et al., 2019). Internal conflicts and economic sanctions have negatively impacted the country’s access to regional trade transactions, as port and border infrastructures destroyed due to the conflict or out of service due to sanctions, or even the lack of renovation funding, have directly contributed to the fragilization of the situation and the complete degradation of the political regime. Maghsoudi (2025) observes that overcoming and avoiding a similar situation is supposed to be based on the existence of an alternative strategy focused on the diversification of collaborations and cooperations.
The Israeli conflict also shows that the usual preparation for tensions in the region is insufficient to keep the security and stability of supply chains and logistics infrastructures at bay. Markad and Tonday (2025) assert that the private sector in Israel, although it is an essential contributor to the economic, political, and security life of the country, its contributions were marginal due to the lack of updates in the forecasting strategy, including the development of facts degrading security and pacification efforts throughout the entire region. This is due, according to Morvadia (2026), to the geopolitical complexities surrounding the conflict and, obviously, the interventions of the states in the region negatively impacting the regional and national stability of supply and threatening the integrity of infrastructure and logistical assets.
The Middle East region continues to shed light on contemporary security issues and challenges. The tensions in this region have sparked different tensions, with the Houthis committed to supporting Palestinian movements and Iran in their confrontations against Israel, negatively impacting maritime activities in the Red Sea entirely. As Hamed (2025) confirms, these activities have expanded the threat between states and organisations in confrontation, towards the vital activities of other states more or less indirectly linked to the conflict in question. According to the same author, Egypt has suffered repercussions from the destabilisation of the Red Sea by Houthi operations when the Suez Canal was almost completely paralysed. This artificial strait, due to these aggressions, has accumulated colossal losses amounting to billions of dollars, and its interruption has threatened the stability of supply for several other states around the world, obviously far from the region.
The accumulation of multiple threats against supply chains and logistics infrastructures at the international level involves rethinking strategies, policies, and planning aimed at the organization and management of transit and supply, and securing global maritime and continental logistics. The renewal of strategies involves rethinking routes and itineraries, diversifying partnerships, and engaging with local communities, etc., in order to ensure the stability of exchanges and the security of interests in the event of a crisis or conflict (Soman and Balasubramanian, 2025).

V. Recommendations of the Study

To effectively manage disruption situations, States will need to engage in diversified partnerships with different actors. Companies, non-governmental organisations, and local communities, in order to overcome negative feedback on threats and risks that negatively impact supply and logistics. They should also shift their efforts towards the use of surveillance, control, analysis, and study technologies, etc., in order to strengthen proactivity and prediction. Manganiello et al. (2026), in their study related to our topic, state that the extensive use of advanced technologies in data collection and analysis favourably contributes to strengthening prediction and prospecting processes and the production of proactive actions instead of reactions. Only the reconstruction of partnerships and the exploitation of modern technologies such as artificial intelligence and the use of these analytical potentials will constitute an essential step towards the stabilisation of supplies and ensure the security of logistical infrastructures (Dawar and Bai, 2024).
Rastoin’s (2017) recommendations for securing logistics platforms and stabilising supply chains are based on the development of new concepts related to international freight forwarder activities, including the multiplication of partnerships, the doubling of agreements, and direct contributions to developing maritime projects in various states, especially near points that pose risks and threats. Matchinda (2021) and Nguyen (2019) recommend, in parallel with the above, the fortification of the national fleet as a cornerstone in comprehensive national security strategies, and similarly, an essential element to confirm national sovereignty. Ayenalem and Endaylalu (2025) believe that these reforms should be accompanied by military and defensive cooperation initiatives, especially with the states bordering these points of tension and regions accumulating risks and conflict. Manganiello (2026) goes further by proposing an innovative framework for the coordination between port infrastructures, which should be deeper by creating operational networks that allow for profound and rapid collaboration in case of crisis and disruption.

Conclusion

The Mediterranean space is very important in the global geostrategic vision through its positioning in global trade and its diverse geographical composition. The natural morphology of the Mediterranean Sea enhances its geostrategic importance, making the control of this space, its straits, canals, seas, and gulfs, a complex task for strategists and complicating the mission of permanently securing and stabilising this strategic area. Recent changes, especially in the MENA region, directly impact the stability of the Mediterranean maritime space and consequently the stability of exchanges and the security of regional maritime infrastructures and logistics.
The current developments in the security landscape and the changes related to the state of conflict in this region demonstrate that the essential interactions within this space are directly impacted, and the traditional frameworks accepted by state actors to stabilise their supplies and secure the logistics in question, away from security mutations, are consequently no longer up to date. The examples we have enumerated confirm that we have inaugurated a period where global supplies and logistical infrastructures and goods interact with security changes and the state of regional conflictuality, as well as political and diplomatic use and military and security manipulation of the geography of this maritime space under study, and receive undesirable repercussions impacting the economy, national security, and the political and social stability of the States.
In this context, it has become imperative that Mediterranean actors affected by this instability in economic, commercial, security, etc., matters modify their visions towards management and planning and call for the modification of traditional strategies to secure and stabilise supply and logistics. This means that actors are invited to rethink their modes of anticipation and their forecasting strategies in order to safeguard their interests in this maritime space and keep them away from disruptions that threaten their economies and their efforts to develop international competitiveness. So, the new vision should be broader than simple reactions or planning, moving towards a deeper strategy that combines defensive, security, commercial, intelligence, technical, and digital aspects, etc., in order to avoid the context of ever-changing influence that impacts the stability of supplies and the security of logistics.
Given the necessity to develop a concrete national strategy in this area, it will become apparent that presenting the main outlines of our contribution to this vision, based on ideas such as the integration of the private sector in preventive crisis management, the diversification and multiplication of partnerships and agreements with state actors and local economic entities, as well as the implementation of an agile strategy far from the central requirements of the State, a strategy that can function in situations requiring quick and intelligent reflections and does not require official intervention, is essential. To ensure greater agility, it is better to multiply routes and develop relationships through non-governmental organisations operating in fragile areas in order to use them to directly contact communities and local decision-makers in case of disruption or blockage of national interests by these communities, as is the case with maritime piracy organised by tribal leaders and criminal organisations obeying central powers. We have also recommended the large-scale use of technologies in the collection of data related to national logistics and the analysis of related activities, to improve the monitoring and surveillance of operations in order to increase the chances of forecasts and develop predictive capabilities in favour of logistics security and supply stability.
Governance based on openness and collaboration between public and private actors is definitely necessary in order to provide public decision-makers with the agility of private leaders. These partnerships prioritise the exchange of information and data necessary to facilitate communication between institutions, ensure the continuity of supply flows, and guarantee quick feedback while avoiding blind reactions. Finally, Morocco should adopt a concrete strategy to ensure its supply and guarantee the security of logistical infrastructures based on prevention, diversification, digitalisation, development, cooperation, and deep collaborations. This strategy will affirm Morocco’s presence in this geopolitical playing field and confirm its image as a reliable and attractive partner. Because contemporary geopolitical changes weigh on the conduct of international economic and commercial activity and should no longer be understood outside of this framework, future research in this field should consequently deepen analysis and evaluation in order to successfully develop flexible and sustainable policies and strategies.

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